Data Briefs
Every brief covers one topic, drawn from a named official source. Each graphic ships with a creator cheat sheet — the headline claim, the supporting numbers, and an honest account of what the data does and doesn't show.
Showing all briefs
Illegal Immigrant Returns: The Data
Enforced returns collapsed 51% before Brexit. Only 4% of small boat arrivals have been returned. Under Dublin, the UK received more transfers than it sent. 3 graphics, 3 cheat sheets.
Universal Credit & Work Incentives: The Data
Some UC claimants keep just 4p of every extra pound they earn. 54% don't know the 16-hour rule no longer exists. Going full-time raises disposable income by 51% — but the taper makes stopping at 16 hours look rational. 5 graphics, 5 cheat sheets.
Why Denmark Changed Its Immigration Policy
Denmark's Ministry of Finance has measured the net fiscal cost of non-Western immigration annually since 2001. The peak was −£5.1bn. A Social Democrat minister cited the falling figures as proof the strict policy was working. 5 graphics, 1 cheat sheet.
UK Migration — The Real Numbers
Net migration of 211,700 sits behind gross arrivals of 816,500. 246,000 British nationals left. 47% of arrivals came to study. 77% of net migration from outside the EU. Seven graphics covering every angle of the ONS Long-Term International Migration data.
Birth Rates & Demographics — The Projections
TFR of 1.39 — the lowest ever recorded, 34% below replacement. Deaths exceed births from July 2026. 34.6% of births to foreign-born mothers. Workers per pensioner falls from 3.5 to 2.0 by 2075. Five graphics on the ONS population projections.
Andy Burnham — Path to No.10 & Connections
Cambridge to Blair SpAd to Health Secretary to Mayor to PM in 10 weeks — without a general election. Career timeline, Blair-era network, Fabian Society engagement, and the cabinet he built. Four graphics.
UK Public Spending — The Honest Numbers
Total spending, % of GDP, welfare composition, working-age disability payments, PIP by condition, and the full fiscal picture. The welfare rise is driven by demographic ageing and disability growth — not working-age benefits, which have fallen as a share of GDP.
The True Cost of a PIP Claim
Archived pending Timms Review final recommendations (due autumn 2026). The 4-point rule described in this brief was withdrawn July 2025. Underlying cost data remains accurate.
The Size of the State
Civil Service headcount from 1976 to 2026, grade composition changes, NHS workforce growth, healthcare productivity, outcomes vs peer countries, and the £1.4tn pension liability not in the debt headline. Six graphics.
The Small Boats Claim
When did crossings begin? What did Dublin III actually achieve? What replaced it? Six verified graphics on the Brexit, COVID, and returns data behind the social media claim.
The Housing Crisis
No government has hit the 300,000 target. Affordability has doubled. 126,000 households in temporary accommodation. Seven graphics on build rates, Right to Buy, planning, homelessness, Help to Buy, and migration demand.
NHS Waiting Lists & Productivity
7.54 million on the waiting list. A&E standard unmet since 2013. Healthcare productivity 5.8% below 2019 despite 45% more staff. Seven graphics on waiting times, A&E, productivity, workforce, cancer waits, and international spending.
Fuel Prices
What drives the pump price, what's in a litre, the 14-year duty freeze, retailer margins doubling since 2019, and the CMA-documented rocket and feather effect. Five graphics from DESNZ, HMRC, and the CMA.
Net Zero
Coal gone, grid transformed — but transport barely moved, consumption emissions tell a different story, and the heat pump maths depends on your tariff. Six graphics on what the data actually shows.
Poverty
Child poverty's U-shape, in-work poverty rising to two thirds, destitution more than doubled, the London housing paradox, and what the 2016–2020 benefit freeze actually cost. Six graphics. All official sources.
Pensions
The triple lock cost, the UK's place in the G7 on replacement rate, pensioner poverty timing, and what the data actually says about retirement adequacy. Six graphics. All official sources.
The Tax Burden
Who pays UK income tax, where the burden is heading, and what the data says about progressive vs regressive taxation. Six graphics. All official sources.
Youth Unemployment
16.4% rate near an 11-year high — but was 21.4% in 2011. Employer costs up 63% since 2019. 840,000 young people NEET. Hospitality shed 79,000 jobs in a year. Six graphics from ONS, DfE, and the Low Pay Commission.
European Border Controls: The Data
11 active Schengen internal control regimes across Europe — and irregular crossings down 37% in H1 2026. What does "closed borders" actually mean in law and practice? Six graphics covering Frontex data, Germany in detail, nationality vs recognition rates, asylum application trends and the EU Migration Pact.
Universal Credit by Immigration Status
8.4 million people on UC — the highest since launch. Who are they? The DWP now publishes a full breakdown by immigration status. British/Irish share is rising. Migrants are proportionally under-represented vs their population share. Five graphics. DWP and Migration Observatory data.